This brief was developed using Microsoft Copilot and edited by Charlotte Sutcliffe, Duke undergraduate research assistant; for full text and references see
Swanson, J. W., Tong, G., Easter, M. M., Civaraman, J. C., Gifford, E. J., Gardner, B. O., … Bonnie, R. J. (2022). Gun violence among young adults with a juvenile crime record in North Carolina: Implications for firearm restrictions based on age and risk. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ypmed.2022.107279
Background:
This study investigates the relationship between juvenile crime records and subsequent gun violence among young adults in North Carolina. The goal is to inform policies on firearm access based on age and criminal history. Using a longitudinal dataset of 51,059 individuals with juvenile criminal history or convictions before age 18, the study examines arrest and conviction patterns for firearm-involved and other offenses through early adulthood.
Findings:
Key findings reveal that young adults with felony-level juvenile records are at significantly elevated risk of gun-related crime. The annual arrest rate for firearm-involved violent crime among this group was 3,349 per 100,000 - nearly nine times higher than the general population rate of 376 per 100,000. Among those with a felony-equivalent juvenile charge who became eligible to purchase firearms at age 18, 61.8% were later arrested for any offense, and 14.3% for a firearm-related offense. The risk was even higher - 17 times that of the general population - for those with felony convictions who were legally prohibited from firearm possession.
The study also found that earlier age at first offense, felony-level crimes, and incarceration before age 18 were strong predictors of future gun crime. Those facing criminal charges at age 13 had significantly higher odds of firearm-related arrests and convictions than those first convicted at age 16. Additionally, individuals with felony convictions and prior incarceration had over five times the odds of future firearm-related arrests compared to those with only misdemeanor juvenile records.
Takeaways:
Many high-risk individuals accessed firearms through illicit means, highlighting the limitations of current enforcement designed to protect youth from firearms. The findings show that restrictions on possessing a firearm while holding previous convictions are insufficient on their own. The study highlights the need for improved implementation of firearm restrictions, comprehensive background checks, and policies targeting illegal gun markets.
Additionally, the research cautions against policies that transfer juveniles to adult court, as these may increase long-term risks of gun violence due to exposure to criminal environments. Instead, a balanced approach that includes upstream interventions addressing social determinants of violence, along with targeted restrictions and enforcement, is recommended to reduce gun violence among high-risk youth.