This brief was developed using Microsoft Copilot and edited by Charlotte Sutcliffe, Duke undergraduate research assistant; for full text and references see
Rose, R. A., Washington, T., Stewart, C. J., & Malley, K. M. D. (2025). The risk of school dropout among youth in formal and informal kinship foster care. Retrieved from http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5156257
Background:
Youth in out-of-home care (OOHC), including formal and informal kinship foster care, face significantly higher risks of school dropout compared to their peers. This study investigates how different OOHC placements (non-kin foster care, formal kinship care, and informal kinship care) influence dropout rates among a racially diverse cohort of over 134,000 North Carolina high school students. The research accounts for both long-term predisposing factors (e.g., economic hardship, CPS involvement) and educational disengagement indicators (e.g., middle school performance, suspensions, absenteeism). Informal kinship care, often unmonitored by child welfare systems, comprises the majority of kinship placements but is rarely studied due to data limitations.
Findings:
Youth in all OOHC settings had significantly higher dropout rates than those not in OOHC. By the end of the study, dropout incidence ranged from 24% (informal kinship care) to 35% (congregate care - group living), compared to 10% for non-OOHC youth. In unadjusted models, informal kinship care, non-kinship family care, and congregate care were all associated with elevated dropout risk. After adjusting for demographics, predisposing, and disengagement factors, only informal kinship care and congregate care remained significant predictors.
Key risk factors included economic disparity, serious emotional disorders, and disengagement indicators such as grade retention, suspensions, absenteeism, and low middle school test scores. Notably, formal kinship care was not associated with increased dropout risk after adjustments, suggesting that system-supported placements may buffer against educational failure.
Takeaways:
Informal kinship care youth are at heightened risk of school dropout, even after accounting for socioeconomic and academic disadvantages. These youth often lack the financial and systemic support provided to those in formal placements. Given that African American youth are disproportionately represented in informal care, this disparity reflects broader systemic inequities. Policymakers should prioritize licensing and supporting kin caregivers, ensure equitable financial assistance, and strengthen coordination between education and child welfare systems. Early interventions targeting disengagement in middle school - especially for OOHC youth - are critical to reducing dropout rates and promoting long-term success.